Less than a month ago, a confident Secaucus Mayor Dennis Elwell said his reelection campaign was on course for another victory in the November municipal election.

This prediction may well echo the hopeful rhetoric of the captain of the Titanic when the ship set out on its maiden voyage.

Last week, the Elwell ship of state may have hit a political iceberg with the announced resignation of Councilman Richard Kane.

While Kane issued a statement saying he was taking up a new job in Connecticut, the sudden change has left Elwell’s ship without a rudder since the Kane represented the deciding vote on a politically-divided City Council.

Over the last few years, Elwell has lost votes on the council, leaving him with a slim 4-3 majority.

The Kane resignation leaves the City Council evenly split between supporters and opponents in a year when Elwell is facing a stiff challenge for reelection from Peter Weiner in the June Democratic primary, and from Councilman Michael Gonnelli in November’s general election.

While Elwell still has control over the municipal Democratic committee charged with naming three recommendations for Kane’s replacement, it is up to the City Council to vote on these, promising a heated battle in the evenly divided council.

Four names have emerged as leading candidates to replace Kane: one-time council candidate Dawn McAdams (and the wife of Gonnelli’s arch enemy on the Department of Public Works), independent candidate for council Robert Zych (a relative of Elwell’s), former Councilman George Heflich (one time ally, then enemy, then ally of Elwell’s again), and former Councilman Michael Grecco (a one-time Elwell opponent who became an ally for a time and is currently believed to be a Gonnelli supporter).

The hard choice, of course, is Gonnelli’s, since he has two prevailing options: block anyone from replacing Kane, and thus force Elwell to seek votes from Gonnelli’s camp on every issue, or to vote for a neutral or Gonnelli-ally, giving Gonnelli control over the City Council in a year in which he hopes to become mayor.

This last choice could backfire, however, since whoever Gonnelli votes on to replace Kane could pit one side against the other, trading his or her vote in order to curry favor.

The Kane resignation also may have put to an end the plans for Elwell-ally Councilman John Reilly to retire from office this year, since Elwell cannot afford to have two council newcomers on his ticket in November.

If this wasn’t bad enough news for Elwell, the upcoming Board of Education election may indicate how his supporters feel about the sinking Elwell ship since three incumbents known to be loyal to Elwell apparently will not seek reelection, leaving a wide open field of candidates Elwell might not be able to control.

What’s up in Hoboken?

A battle of political polls is underway in Hoboken, where Councilmember Beth Mason appears to have a narrow lead over Councilmember Dawn Zimmer in the race for mayor.

While supporters of Councilmember Peter Cammarano expect to get a boost from recent lobbying for state support during this year’s League of Municipalities trip to Washington, D.C. a new poll by Councilmember Michael Russo appears to be ignoring Cammarano to gauge Russo’s chances at entering the race.

Cammarano people are claiming that state Sen. and Union City Mayor Brian Stack is twisting the arm of Assemblyman and Hoboken Councilmember Ruben Ramos to support Mason for mayor. Ramos is up for reelection to the Assembly this year.

Ramos people, however, claim this is a tactic by the Cammarano campaign to build support for Cammarano by making Stack into a political boss.

“Political bosses are decisive,” said one political observer. “Stack is anything but decisive.”

Another political observer called Stack “The Prince Hamlet of Hudson County,” a man who can never make up his mind about anything.

While Stack appears to be supporting Mason in the upcoming election for mayor, Ramos – if reports are to be believed – may be throwing his own hat into the ring for mayor.

This would add to the list of possible mayoral candidates that includes Cammarano, Mason, Zimmer, Russo, School Board Trustee Frank Raia, and Scott Delea.

Raia will likely announce one way or another shortly.

Meanwhile the real mystery involves who will run for at-large council candidates on each ticket. Zimmer was expected to unveil her ticket this week. Cammarano will announce his next week, his camp says, and Mason will likely announce within two or three weeks.

Former Freeholder Maurice Fitzgibbons could run with Cammarano’s ticket, but it is not likely.

Taxes and crime are issues in JC

In Jersey City, former Assemblyman Louis Manzo’s hopes to become mayor may have suffered a slight setback as Councilman Steve Fulop rejected bids to run with any mayoral candidate and has declared himself an independent candidate in Ward E.

Manzo rejected, however, the predictions that he will come in third in a race pitting him against incumbent Mayor Jerramiah Healy, Assemblyman L. Harvey Smith, and Dan Levin.

Emilio De Lia and Andrew Hubsch announced this week that they will run on a ticket with Levin as at-large candidates.

Manzo said the overriding issues will be crime and taxes, and his campaign may be boosted by the tax bills that went out, showing an almost 20 percent increase over the last tax quarter.

Reports that former Mayor Bret Schundler’s wife, Lynn, would be running in Ward E on the Healy ticket against Fulop appear to have been squashed in order to allow Bret to make a possible run for lieutenant governor next year.