The scientists say that hurricanes, tidal waves and floods in Hudson County are indeed a possibility. And the school's Davidson Laboratory has been working on a machine to record information from inside a hurricane, just as the scientists in the 1996 film Twister were working on a machine to record tornado information (see sidebar, "Hurricanes a-flowin'.")Stevens scientists also recently established the New Jersey Coastal Monitoring Network (CMN) to provide real time observation and archived records of wave characteristics, water temperature, water level and meteorological conditions (wind speed and direction, temperature and barometric pressure), as well as digital images of the beaches. The system is designed to provide information to local, state, and federal emergency management personnel.
"Our research is aimed at getting better understanding of shore line process such as beach erosion and the behavior of waves along the coast," said Michael Bruno, director of Davidson Laboratory and a professor at the Department of Civil, Environmental and Ocean Engineering, last month. "Ultimately, as our research progresses, we'll be able to minimize the casualty of homes and people living along the coast when a severe storm strikes."
Established in June 4, 1935 by Dr. Kenneth S.M. Davidson, Davidson Laboratory is one of the leading hydrodynamic and ocean engineering research centers in the world to conduct basic and applied research in coastal engineering, coastal process, shoreline monitoring, remote sensing and coastal meteorology.
According to Bruno, the field of coastal engineering has been changing dramatically, especially in the past five years, due to advances in instrumentation.
"The technological development of measuring devices allows observation along the coastal ocean in ways unavailable to us previously," Bruno said. "[And] we are using the Internet as the conduit for the information that we are gathering."
The data compiled by the Davidson Laboratory is available to all on the Lab's web site: http://www.dl.stevens-tech.edu.
Davidson Laboratory has established a working relationship with the local branch of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, NJ, which is responsible for forecasting the coastal wave conditions along the nation's shorelines. The NWS contacted Davidson Laboratory because it was impressed with the accurate measurements made by the first-of-their-kind gauges installed along the Jersey shore. The NWS asked the Davidson Laboratory to provide them with vital data that would fill the void in their weather forecasts.
"Because our gauges are on land, the data we provide the NWS with improves the accuracy of their forecasts," said Dr. Thomas Herrington, the lab's research assistant director.
"It has been a very nice two-way street exchange of information," Herrington added. "In the same way that we provide them with information, they also provide us with their data. This has also worked to our advantage since we are interested in other weather events and information from their instruments that we had no knowledge of."
Davidson Laboratory research of coastal weather is relevant to Hudson County since powerful storms often have substantial affects on the area.
"In December of '92, there was a big storm along the coast that caused severe flooding and raised the water level in New York Harbor sufficiently that the southern part of Hoboken was flooded, including the PATH, for a period of more then a week," Bruno said. "So as you can see, the work that we are doing is very relevant to Hoboken and its neighboring towns."
Tsunami report
Another natural phenomenon that Bruno said might impact the East Coast is tidal waves. A month ago, Columbia University published a report about the possibility of a tsunami-like wave striking the East Coast caused by an underwater landslide. A group of geologists found evidence of a crack in the ocean floor along the continental shelf. They theorized that if the sub-marine portion of the land was going to fall away from the shelf, it would cause a large wave, much like a tsunami, that will impact the East Coast.
"The reason this made a lot of news was because we always said that the East Coast is not threatened by a tsunami because the continental shelf [on the East Coast] is so wide, and that it will protect us against a tidal wave," Bruno said. "If a tsunami was to be generated out in the deep ocean and head our way, the wave would break on the continental shelf like a regular wave breaks on the beach, only with much more intensity, causing it to lose its energy before it reaches the coast."
Bruno said that landslide-induced waves might impact the East Coast, but that a traditional tsunami probably will not be a threat in our lifetime. "On the one hand, we don't want to discount the possibility of a tidal wave," he said, "but on the other hand, we don't want to alarm people and say that this is a legitimate threat."
As history shows, there is no evidence of a landslide-induced wave impacting the Jersey shore in the past, so there is no reason to panic, Bruno said. Currently, residents should be more concerned with the possibility of more frequent and higher intensity tropical storms hitting our shores over the next three months, he said.
Hurricanes a-flowin'
Weather forecasters have said this could be a more brutal year for hurricanes than usual. And while many of the storms have petered out in the last few decades before reaching the Northeast, others have devastated the shore areas. Davidson Laboratory has been working with the National Hurricane Center, a branch of the National Weather Service (NWS) in Washington, D.C., to develop a machine that can record information about a hurricane as it passes over.
The National Hurricane Center maintains a continuous watch on tropical storms over the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and the Eastern Pacific from May 15 through Nov. 30. The Center prepares and distributes hurricane watches and warnings for the general public, and also conducts applied research to evaluate and improve hurricane-forecasting techniques.
In an effort to contribute to the research of tropical storms' impact on coastal infrastructure, the Davidson Laboratory has designed and implemented a monitoring and weather observation system for real-time emergency management use known as Rapidly-Deployed ObserVation System for Coastal WeathER (ROVER).
The ROVER is designed to provide vital weather and storm information at a specific area of interest during a severe coastal storm event. The system is designed to record and transmit high-resolution atmospheric and water elevation data for the dual purposes of real time support of emergency management operations and post-storm analysis, Professor Thomas Herrington explained. The development of the prototype was funded by the New Jersey Police Office of Emergency Management.
According to Professor Herrington, the National Hurricane Center's predictions of hurricanes are accurate as long as the storm hovers over the deep ocean. Once the hurricane begins to interact with the coastline, NHC's predictions are way off.
"The hurricane over the ocean rides above flat waters," Herrington said. "When the storm reaches land it hits mountains and trees, that creates turbulence in the atmosphere on the ground, which changes the structure of the storm."
Without the proper instruments to measure the actual speeds, rainfall patterns and pressure of the storm, when a hurricane hits land, the NHC isn't able to accurately predict the movement of the hurricane or the intensity of its impact, he said.
With more than half of the U.S. population residing within 50 miles of the coast, and with eight major metropolitan regions located on the eastern seaboard alone, it is in the national interest to mitigate damage that occurs during severe coastal storms, according to lab director Michael Bruno. Over the last decade, the eastern seaboard of the United States was hit by a series of very strong storms that caused serious coastal erosion and property damage.
"Starting March, 1989 and ending with Hurricane Floyd, the Atlantic coast has been struck by 15 hurricanes and impacted by another 23 hurricanes moving northward offshore of the coast," Bruno said. "This increase in storm activity has brought to a close a 25-year period of relatively mild weather along the East Coast, dating back to March, 1962."
Since the late 1960s, there has also been a significant increase of 5 percent per year in population along the coast, Bruno said. This coastal population growth has created the potential for unprecedented loss of life and property as a result of a severe coastal storm, he said.
ROVER consists of a series of portable meteorological sensors that are installed prior to a coastal storm at specific locations where the storm is predicted to hit. The device contains an anemometer, temperature probe, barometer, and a pressure gauge for the measurement of water elevation. The components of ROVER are light, mobile and can be easily assembled in a short period of time.
"Hurricanes are different than tornadoes," Herrington said. "You know when they are going to hit land near you within 24 to 48 hours. So you have enough time to get out there and install equipment. The idea was to develop a mobile and light device that can be put relatively quickly into the ground."
Once on the server, the data complied by the ROVER is recorded and transmitted to the computers in the Davidson Lab through a cellular telephone network using cellular transmission system, approximately every five to 10 minutes. Once its processed, it is posted on the Internet and can be accessed by emergency management personnel as well as civilians.
The transmitted data of current atmospheric and flood elevations of the storm in progress provides a more accurate assessment of potential coastal damage and allows for the better utilization of emergency management resources.
"The emergency centers use this information to determine the severity of storms and when conditions call for a swift public evacuation," Bruno said.
The ROVER costs $5,000 to be assembled, and the cellular service costs $500 per year.
"Our equipment is affordable and expendable," Bruno said.
"Equipment is becoming so cheap," Herrington added. "If you lose one, it's not that bad and it can be easily replaced."
Presently, ROVER is in the prototype stage. So far, it's been demonstrated at the N.J. State Police Hurricane Conference in June in Atlantic City. Once completed, the system will have between 10 to 15 nodes and will be able to cover an area from the East Coast through the Delaware River.
In the future, if the ROVER proves itself to be effective, it will be used nationwide.
2000 Atlantic Ocean hurricane names
(source: National Weather Service)
Alberto*
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Keith
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William
*First hurricane of the season;
recognized Aug. 4.
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